Israeli Politics and the Peace Process

Before the last Israeli elections the Likud which is about half Settler Extremist and half centrist peace oriented joined hands with the far right anti peace talks party, Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman.

Lieberman was recently charged with corruption and had to stand down as Foreign Minister in the coalition.  Lieberman has now been cleared by the court and has taken up the post of Foreign Minister again.  In that post Lieberman has vowed that there will be no peace deal. 

The far right Jewish Settler Movement extremists have vowed not to give up one centimeter of occupied territory.

In order to remain prime minister Netanyahu has to placate them and has done everything humanly possible to sabotage the peace talks while blaming the other side for the problems. 

Everyone knows that there is no chance for peace with this present far right centrist Israeli coalition.  In view of this John Kerry is working on a peace outline which will force the sides to accept an American roadmap of parameters for a peace deal. 

In view of the coming crisis between the peace oriented folks and the hard line far right, the peace party’s are now working to establish a peace social justice coalition and replace the Netanyahu government.

Yesh Atid  is a key peace party which is now in the governing coalition and with 19 seats can bring down the government over the far right peace talks issue.  However the peace coalition being put together may not have the needed number of MK’s to form a new government of its own. 

Hence they are readying a peace coalition to fight the next election after the present coalition collapses.

Newly elected Labor chief Herzog knows what he wants: A left wing party merger. “We need to considered cooperation in anticipation of the next election, we need to present a wide and inclusive spectrum that can serve as an alternative to right-wing rule,” he explained. “I’m talking about Labor, Yesh Atid, Hatnua, Meretz, Kadima as well as other social and civilian movements.”

In the meantime he has no intention to join the government collation. “In its current composition Labor has no business in this government.” He told Yedioth Aharonoth Saturday.

As a coalition crisis nears; [Kerry is to make his push in January] The Bibi Lieberman government is preparing for war.  Today a dress rehearsal fo an invasion and reoccupation is taking place in Ashkelon and Lieberman is warning that Israel will reoccupy Gaza if there is any more violence in the south.

Lieberman said his party was opposed to any Gaza operation “whose goal will not be taking control over all of the strip and cleansing the area of all weapons and terror infrastructure that was built there and stopping the local production of weapons.” Noting that such an operation could take months, he said the price would be smaller than a limited operation, he stressed that Israel had no interest in initiating a Gaza operation or taking control of the area, but that it would not absorb more missile attacks and that terrorists should take this into account.

Once the Herzog peace coalition is ready Yesh Atid may leave the coalition bringing down the government over the far right intransigence in the peace talks.

That could easily be accompanied by an Israeli invasion and reoccupation of Gaza in the near future.  Such a war is highly likely to escalate to conflict in the north.  Israel will achieve a very bloody victory with many missiles raining down on Israel. 

Rather than being seen as victors, Netanyahu / Lieberman may be blamed for the damage and bloodshed and the electorate may turn to a peace making coalition.

A new Israeli peace making government may be in control of Israel in months, with a genuine peace deal by late this year.

1 Thess 5:3


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