Hamas / Fatah Reconciliation Deal Analysis

The Hamas Political Wing and Fatah have set the conditions for an Israeli war on the Gaza militants, followed by elections and a genuine dialogue for regional peace. 

  1. Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas will spend a few days in the Gaza Strip, his first visit there in the decade since Hamas won the Palestinian elections and Fatah attempted to deny them their election victory.
  2. The Hamas Military Wing’s  objections to giving up its weapons, will be discussed in meetings in November.
  3. The Hamas Political Wing and Fatah will meet in one month to set out the date and modalities for elections to the presidency and parliament.
  4. In the next two weeks, Hamas will transfer into Egyptian hands, control of the Rafah border crossing from the Gaza Strip to Egyptian Sinai.  The Palestinian Authority will then take charge of the Rafah crossing from Egyptian officials.
  5. A joint Palestinian Authority-Hamas commission will determine procedures for the merger of the PA and Gaza governing administrations. The future of the 60,000 people employed by the Gaza administration must also be decided.
  6. The Hamas Political Wing will give up control of the Gaza central administration to Fatah on Dec. 1.

The Hamas Military Wing has consistently objected to disarming and a final resolution of that problem may require an Israeli intervention to annihilate the Gaza militant organizations.  If war does break out the December 1 date for Fatah to assume control may be delayed

Look for an Israeli election call and a war between the Hamas Military Wing and the Gaza militants against Israel in the near future; which will lead to both Israeli and Palestinian / Gaza elections, setting the conditions for a genuine regional dialogue for peace.


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