Geopolitics: Connecting the Mideast Conflicts

BREAKING NEWS 13:15 EDT: 

Egyptian sources report that Israel and the Palestinians have agreed to another 72-hour ceasefire starting Sunday at midnight.  The Arab League will meet on the Gaza subject Monday and the ceasefire is to allow them to debate and make their recommendations.

Israeli sources  stress that envoys will only set out for Cairo early Monday – if and when Hamas rockets  stop. 

The Arab League which is dominated by Egypt and the Gulf States, and is expected to approve the deal between Abbas’ Palestinian Authority and Israel, backed by Egypt the United States, the EU and their allies.  

Hamas and the Gaza militants will then be backed into a corner with most of the world against them and face a choice between accepting the demilitarizing of Gaza, foreign occupation and  accepting the Israeli PA dictate, or fighting on with the backing of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran.  See below for the background of this political maneuver.

BREAKING NEWS 06:15 EDT:  Israel rejects deal with Hamas, goes for deal with Abbas and destruction of Gaza militants.  Netanyahu says patience is needed.  That is because of the need to coordinate Gaza events in light of the threat from the north. 

Geopolitics: Connecting the Mideast Conflicts

There are at least four crisis points in the Middle East today all of them interrelated.

The IS Caliphate in Iraq and Syria is rising as an extremist Islamic entity which threatens not only the stability of Iraq, but the American backed insurgency in Syria.

For the past two months since the Caliphate was declared, Islamic Extremists have been flocking to join the movement, nearly doubling its strength from the original 5,000 fighters.  The ISIS is attracting fighters from al Qaeda and across the extremist universe who see the ISIS as being successful in creating an extremist Muslim state.

This massing of Islamic Extremists is to the advantage of the west since a knock out blow can be delivered to the massed Islamic Extremists at the appropriate time.

What is the appropriate time?  The government in Iraq needs to depose pm Maliki and replace him with a Shia moderate who can be accepted by all and who can lead a national unity government.

PM Maliki has throughout his tenure, disenfranchised the Sunni and Kurds, seeking to establish a Shia ascendancy over Iraq.  That led to the Kurds and Sunni allying with the ISS movement against Maliki.

The Kurds and Sunni tribes have now tasted the brutality of the ISIS Movement and have divorced themselves from that movement, however they are not able to take up arms against the ISIS without a national unity government in Bagdad and support from Bagdad and America.

This was made clear by the recent ISIS victories over the Kurds and the need for Western intervention to save Irbil and those not wanting to submit to ISIS dictates regarding conversion to the ISIS religious philosophy.

The present western intervention is relatively minor; however it will end in the destruction of the gathering Islamic Extremists when the Iraqi governance problem is resolved.  Iraq has already chosen a new president and parliamentary speaker and America has convinced the Shite parties to dump Maliki.   The main problem now is to find a new prime minister from the Shia side who is acceptable to all.

Once this is accomplished a new national unity government acceptable to all will be formed in Bagdad and the Kurds and Sunni tribes will have the full support of the Iraqi army and western support, to rise up and destroy the IS Caliphate and the Islamic militants gathered from around the world.

The formation of a new Iraqi national unity government is delaying other Middle East events, yet the delay is serving a purpose of allowing more and more extremists to gather together in the IS Caliphate for their destruction.

It is essential that the Islamic extremists be destroyed before the American sponsored Syrian insurgents can overthrow the Assad regime.  Otherwise  the Assad regime will fall to the Extremists.

Gaza

It is planned that Israel invade Gaza and destroy all the militant groups there.  After a month of fighting in which the cross border tunnels from Gaza into Israel were mainly destroyed, Israel is ready for the next phase, which is the complete destruction of the militants in Gaza.

The present interlude is to repair and maintain equipment and give the troops a rest, while waiting for the Iraqi IS Caliphate situation to mature.

The talks with the Gaza militants for a long term peace are merely delaying the inevitable as neither side will budge on their positions.

The real action in Cairo is the Israeli / Palestinian Authority talks on the end game of an Israeli take down of the Gaza militants.  Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are to be given control of Gaza after Hamas and the militants are defeated by Israel.

Israel and Abbas with the involvement of Egypt and the United States are hashing out the future of Gaza after the militants are destroyed.

Some of the details include the disarming and demilitarization of the strip; the ending of the Israeli Egyptian siege of Gaza; an international force backed by the UN to stabilize, secure, control and rebuild the strip;  and what to do with captured militants etc etc.

Once these talks between Israel and the PA are completed; they will be imposed on Gaza regardless of what Hamas or the other militants want.

Before moving to destroy the Gaza militants, Israel must complete the end game negotiations with the PA; and the Iraqi government situation needs to be resolved.

Hezbollah

So far Israel has been spared from a two front war, however once Israel is involved in a big time battle in Gaza, Hezbollah is expected to strike from the north.

In the north Hezbollah has a tunnel system under the Israeli border several times as extensive as the Hamas tunnel system from Gaza.  Hezbollah also has several times the rocket inventory as Hamas had.

Hezbollah is anticipated to be at the ready to flood forces under the border and attack Galilee in strength from the ground, while blasting Israel will volleys of rockets that will make the Gaza rockets look insignificant.

The intent of this carefully planned fight is to make Israel seek peace according to the demands of Hamas and Hezbollah.

Israel and her allies have been preparing for this two front war for years now, as has Hamas Hezbollah.

There is no doubt that Israel will succeed and defeat Hamas and Hezbollah, although the fight will be very hard and bloody.

Back to Iraq and the IS Caliphate

The destruction of Hezbollah will bring regime change in Syria, the question is:  Will the Syrian regime fall to Islamic Extremists or to the Western backed insurgents? 

The answer to that question is: that in order for the western backed people to take over the Assad regime, the Islamic Extremists must first be removed from the picture; BEFORE the fall of Hezbollah and the Assad regime. 

This means that the Israeli war on Gaza and potentially on Hezbollah is deeply intertwined with the Iraqi government situation and the coming war on the IS Caliphate. 

IRAN

On another track the west is also ready to destroy the Revolutionary Guard in Iran opening up a regime change in that country. 

CONCLUSION

All of these threads lead to the same end; the complete destruction of organized Islamic militants in the Middle East.

Victory for Israel and the West is assured, although it will be very costly and bloody.  This is likely to lead to a change in the Israeli governing coalition and a genuine dialogue for peace.

These events may very likely bring financial crisis in the world,  for which the establishment is prepared to bring in a new world economic system no longer dependent on the American dollar.

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