Yesterday evening the Israeli prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu consulted with members of his coalition privately polling them on their positions about a new Gaza ceasefire. When he realized that the proposed ceasefire would lose in a cabinet vote, he simply accepted the proposed ceasefire on his own initiative and failed to call a cabinet meeting for a vote.
The ceasefire is open ended and calls for talks on a fi9nal deal after 30 days have expired. These final talks are agreed to be on:
Gaza militants wants the following which are all against Israeli red lines, without a Gaza agreement to the Israeli demands:
1, A full ending of the Israeli siege of Gaza,
2. A massive Gaza rebuilding project including a Gaza international airport rebuilding and reopening an international seaport for Gaza
3. And the release of prisoners held by Israel.
Israel wants the following which are all against the Gaza red lines
1. A full demilitarization of Gaza,
2. Security and disarming of Gaza guaranteed by an international force,
3. Any rebuilding supervised by an international agency.
At present it appears that no agreement will be forthcoming during the formal final permanent truce talks scheduled to begin after 30 days. Either a miracle will come and the Gaza militants will agree to be disarmed, or another round of fighting is highly likely.
Meanwhile a resolution at the Security Council is being prepared that the United States has guaranteed to Israel will call for the demilitarization of Gaza and set up a security and rebuilding force for the strip. It is likely that it will take some weeks for the final resolution to be agreed by all the SC members, and another round of fighting would greatly encourage the passing of such an intrusive resolution.
The present Gaza ceasefire is to:
1. Allow time for the coming UN Security Council resolution, and
2, Allow time for the destruction of the IS Caliphate and Islamic extremists in Iraq / Syria,
A. This present Gaza ceasefire is needed to gain time to destroy the Islamic Extremists in Iraq / Syria, and to set up the final destruction of the Gaza militants, destroy Hezbollah and change the regimes in Syria and Iran.
The Gaza war is very likely not over; rather a breather is being taken while other theatres are prepared for the final act.
Netanyahu accepted this ceasefire understanding that it will highly likely only delay an inevitable next round of fighting.
Bibi agreed to the ceasefire under heavy pressure from the United States, because America needs at least another month or longer to deal with the IS Caliphate in Syria Iraq.
The next round of fighting in Gaza is expected to escalate into a multi front war which will bring an Israeli take out of the Gaza militants and also Hezbollah and the remaining power of the Assad regime.
The IS Caliphate must be destroyed before any war between Israel and Hezbollah / Assed to prevent Islamic Extremists from taking over Syria and Lebanon: and to allow the American Allied backed Syrian rebels to take over from the Assad regime in Syria.
The next round of fighting for Israel will largely depend on when the Islamic extremists fall in Syria / Iraq.
These things are well known by the Israeli cabinet, however almost no one is willing to buck the public demands that Gaza be dealt with as soon as possible; hence the need for Netanyahu to be the object of the Israeli public’s frustration and animosity.
Bibi is forced to make his stand, and in doing so has become the political whipping boy of the public and the various parties including his own Likud. His popularity has plummeted and the political parties are calling for elections.
It is now highly likely that early elections will be called for Israel in the near future.