Events Trending Towards Autumn 2017 Mideast Crisis

11 August Update: Kushner to head a delegation to the Middle East the last week of August, to hold talks with Israel and the Palestinians as well as senior officials in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Egypt.  “The president has asked that these discussions focus on the path to substantive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks”.  See also Middle East Peace Initiative Planned for September 2017

Jared Kushner will be accompanied by  Special Envoy for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt and Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategy Dina Powell.

 

Events Trending Towards Autumn 2017 Mideast Crisis

President Trump is planning to launch his Mideast peace initiative in late September and to push hard through October for Israel and the Palestinians to hold a genuine dialogue for peace.  See  Middle East Peace Initiative Planned for September 2017

To counter Trump’s plans the Likud’s ideological bureau voted to formally oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.  Netanyahu had reluctantly endorsed a “two state solution” under pressure from  the Americans but is personally ideologically opposed to a Palestinian state.  

In 1948 the UN voted to create a Palestinian and a Jewish state; the Palestinians are still waiting.

The bureau, which is the party’s ideological institution, voted late Tuesday night to reinforce a May 2002 decision – supported by Netanyahu at that time – by the Likud central committee against the two-state solution: meaning that they reject any serious peace talks.

The next step is to convene the Likud’s governing central committee in September to pass proposals calling for unlimited construction in Judea and Samaria and annexing their Jewish communities. More than 800 central committee members have signed a petition demanding a vote on the proposals.  

The Knesset enters its summer recess at the end of July and Netanyahu has announced his backing of a bill to annex Gush Etzion, Efrat, Betar Illit, Givat Ze’ev and Ma’aleh Adumim to Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries, creating a greater Jewish Jerusalem and turning Palestinian Jerusalem communities  with about 100,000 residents into a small island completely surrounded by a Jewish Greater Jerusalem.  

This is the issue which is now being protested by the Palestinians and the Islamic world.  

When the Knesset reconvenes at the end of October the Legislative Committee is planning to expedite the annexation bill to advance the Settler Movement agenda which would also provoke the Palestinians into rejecting any peace talks.  

The annexation bill is likely to quickly pass in committee and is expected to bring a critical coalition crisis when it comes up in the Knesset in November.  

Mass Palestinian demonstrations – even if they fade during the summer – will resurface as this bill advances.  These demonstrations and the ire of President Trump along with that of the whole world and the obviously intended provocation of unilaterally annexing land without negotiations, could bring Lapid to leave the coalition bringing the present government down.

This timeline trend dove tails nicely with the demise of the Islamic State which is expected to take another three months or so.

A regional war will break out and the electorate will hold Netanyahu and the Settler Movement Extremist’s responsible, not only for the cost in treasure and bloodshed, but for the war itself, voting in a peace oriented government.  

New governments in Israel and the region will negotiate a genuine peace, but the Israeli minority of extremists will resist every moment and will work as hard as they can to sabotage any peace agreement. 

 

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