01 June update: The most far right extremist government in Israeli history has been sworn in. The beleaguered Islamic State has promised Ramadan [7 Jun – 6 July] attacks on Europe and Israel. The new Israeli governing coalition has been established to use any attack as a casus belli to wipe out the Gaza militants and attack Hezbollah to demolish the military of that entity.
The extremist coalition is also intended to deal with a big international push for peace after the coming conflict by using the “talk, talk, delay, delay” approach, until the international community loses interest. However this coalition is fragile and is likely to fall after the war bringing a new peace oriented government to Israel.
The Islamic State is now in rapid decline before an allied onslaught in Fallujah, and Raqqa province Syria as well as in Libya.
The Present Threads of Crisis:
1. The Islamic State
2. Israel vs Palestine – Gaza – Hezbollah
3. Syria / Iran
4. The US and Russia
5. The EU
A new message from the spokesman of the Islamic State calls on followers to launch attacks on the United States and Europe during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which begins with the expected sighting of the new moon after sunset 6 June, the first day of Ramadan being 7 June through 6 July.
“Ramadan, the month of conquest. Get prepared, be ready … so that you make it a month of calamity on the non-believers anywhere,” said the message, purporting to be from Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, suggesting attacks on military and civilian targets.
There have been recent repeated threats of attacks across Europe during the June – July football [soccer] championship games which are being held across France; Game locations and schedules.
In addition there are warnings of attacks on America and warnings from Islamic State to expect attacks on Israel in the near future.
Preparing for the big push against the Islamic State the United States and Coalition Allies have sent more troops to Iraq and Syria in recent days in preparation to respond to any such attacks with an offensive to destroy the Islamic State.
On May 21st Army Gen. Joseph Votel, who is head of US Central Command, became the highest-ranking US military officer known to have entered Syria since the US began its campaign to counter the Islamic State in 2014.
Votel flew into northern Syria and spent nearly 11 hours in the country. He met with US military advisers working with Syrian Arab fighters, and conferred with leaders of the Syrian Democratic Forces, an umbrella group of Kurdish and Arab fighters supported by the US about plans for the coming anti IS offensive.
The Islamic State is now under heavy pressure in all of its areas and has decided to play the Israeli card [as I have often warned would come when the IS got into trouble] in an attempt to rally Muslims to its support.
On May 7 – 8 the Islamic State provinces in the Middle East, simultaneously released at least 6 videos claiming that Islamic State forces are ready to attack Israel. The videos refer to the Palestinian issue and Jerusalem. In each one, the videos claim that the IS has not forgotten the Palestinians, and will not neglect them any more and promises an attack on Israel; saying “We’re coming, and coming very soon” accompanied by images of fighters.
Any such attack is likely to come from any remaining Hamas Military Wing tunnels from Gaza into Israel. The timing of any attack was likely moved forward because of the recent Israeli anti tunnel action which placed them in a “use it or lose it” position, and will likely be triggered by any further Israeli anti tunnel action on the border.
Any further attacks in America or Europe would bring a strong reaction and a final offensive to destroy organized Islamic Extremism. An attack attempt on Israel would bring a parrallel Israeli operation against the Hamas Military Wing and militant allies like the Salafist groups and Islamic Jihad in Gaza.
Netanyahu is currently pausing its anti tunnel offensive to deal with internal political issues in preparation for the coming war. Israel is preparing to use the expected attacks to invade Gaza and completely wipe out the Hamas military wing and other Gaza militants; hence the bringing in of the Yisrael Beiteinu party to the governing coalition and giving the super hawk Lieberman charge of the defense ministry. See this article on the powers of the Israeli defense minister.
After cleansing Gaza [or during that fight] this war is planned to escalate to an effort to destroy Hezbollah as well, and at some point Syria and Iran are likely to get involved bringing a rain of tens of thousands of missiles on Israeli cities.
For the past year the United States military has been busy constructing missile defense facilities in Israel and with the successful completion of the recent Juniper Cobra 2016 missile defense exercise in Israel American factories are working a full capacity producing anti missile missiles for Israel.
Tens of thousands of missile defense missiles and their associated systems are now being shipped to Israel in preparation for the escalation of the Gaza conflict into a full scale multi front war in which as many as 100,000 missiles could be fired at Israel.
In negotiations with Russia the US has given Russia until August to overthrow Assad and the Syria loyalist leadership and give the government to the US backed rebels or the situation will drastically change. This is a strong indicator of an impending Israeli attack on Hezbollah.
While Netanyahu is planning another election presenting himself as a Saul or David like, destroyer of the enemies of Israel in a great victory, the conflict is very likely to be extremely costly and bloody putting the electorate in the mood for a peace making government.
Then Ya’alon with clean hands and above reproach can expect the backing of the Israeli electorate sans the far right extremists and will have the Knesset seats and the credentials to make a peace deal acceptable to all except the Settler Movement Extremists.
Russian American negotiating for a broad Syria deal are now deadlocked
The United States wants Russia / Syria:
1. To accept a Turkey dominated de facto Al Qaeda state on the Turkish border,
2. To accept a de facto Kurdish autonomous state in north east Syria
3. To accept the removal of Assad and the senior Syrian military leaders
4. To accept a takeover of a rump Syria by the US backed insurgents.
While Russia wants: The end of US sanctions on Russia and a satisfactory settlement of the Ukraine problem.
The US Russia talks on Syria are deadlocked over the American refusal to rescind sanctions on Russia over Ukraine; America has laid down an August deadline before they take action to remove Assad putting the US and Russia on a Collision Course.
It appears that the Islamic State war will have a parallel in Gaza and as the IS and Gaza fall the war will spread to Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. The regime in Syria would change after the Israeli defeat of Hezbollah and the remaining strength of the Assad regime,while the American Coalition is at the ready for a massive bombing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and a change of regime in Iran.
This situation could bring on a strong Russian response in Europe for which NATO is preparing by a massive reinforcement of troops in Poland and the Baltic. Of course any Russian moves will be labeled aggression by the West.
New governments in the region including a new government in Israel would then be ready for a peace deal. In Israel it is highly probable that Ya’alon will emerge as the man with the moral standing needed to lead a new peace oriented government.
French President Francois Hollande has announced that the peace conference on the Israeli-Palestinian issue that he planned to convene in Paris at the end of this month will now be held on 3 June. The conference of twenty foreign ministers including John Kerry will thrash out the broad parameters of a regional peace deal which will later be presented to the Security Council as a Resolution for its approval
President Obama appears to be preparing to endorse the UN Resolution laying out the broad principles and parameters for a Mideast peace deal. The coming regional war will provide the political impetus for such a resolution, and the coming government changes in Israel and the region will make an international peace conference and a regional peace deal possible.
Palestine and the various regional governments are are now ready to adjust their peace proposals accordingly the only real obstacle to a regional peace after the approaching war will be the far right government of Israel [which is already divided over the death penalty with Kahlon obstinately opposed].
The majority in the region including in Israel will be delighted; but make no mistake, the Israeli far right and the Settler Movement Extremists will be outraged and will work with all their means to prevent and then to sabotage the deal.