Rex Tillerson, Chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobil, was named this week as the next administration’s Secretary of State to execute the tough Iran policies being charted by president-elect Donald Trump, including Trump’s decision to stiffen the nuclear accord signed with Iran after he moves into the White House on Jan. 20.
First Trump will have to make a strong move to defeat the Islamic State and get that issue out of the way as soon as possible, but demands on Iran may come very quickly. It is reported that Trump will then demand Iranian forces withdraw from both Iraq and Iran’s own close ally Syria.
As the Islamic State is defeated and Syria defeats its own Islamic Extremists in Aleppo and Idlib, Syria will be in a position to move south and engage the Israeli backed militants near the Golan which could well bring an Israeli intervention. If Trump threatens Iran by imposing very heavy unilateral sanctions, these threads of events could well spell a broad regional Mideast war.
A special team is already working on revisions of the Iran nuclear accord which the US and five other global powers concluded with Iran in 2015.
The teams preparing the Trump administration’s Iran policy were put in place last week by Tillerson and designated national security adviser Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn.
No members of the incumbent NSC, State Department, Pentagon or Treasury, who managed the Obama administration’s Iran policy, were invited to take part. The team members were instead chosen from military leaders and intelligence officials who have opposed the nuclear accord with Iran.
Also involved are former administration officials hired by Exxon for their extensive knowledge of Iran’s oil trade and their close ties with oil circles in the Gulf Emirates, which are Sunni; and anti Iran like Israel.
Soon after he is inaugurated president, Trump intends to present Tehran with a unilateral demand to accept a series of harsh revisions to the treaty as a precondition for continuing the UN approved agreement already made between the five plus one and Iran.
Trump does not intend consulting the Security Council or America’s co-signers, Russia, China, Germany, Britain and France, or asking them for their endorsement of the revamped accord.
Once Tillerson has been confirmed as Secretary of State and Trump has been inaugurated a major move against the Islamic State is coming and the new proposal will be presented as an ultimatum to Iran; if Iran rejects the revised accord, president Trump has a new sanctions list drawn up which is a lot tougher than the sanctions regime imposed by the Bush and Obama administrations.
Of course the whole thing is a nonstarter for Iran since they already have a legal deal, and it violates US agreements with the other signers as well.
If Trump goes ahead with his plan, it will have a profound affect on NATO internal relationships and on NATO Russia relationships [especially if Russia responds to a war against Iran by moving against the US backed coup government in Ukraine], as well as effecting the 2017 elections in Germany and France and the possible elections in Italy.
Iran has already rejected the very idea of changing the deal and warned that such a provocation could bring a response by Iran on Israel. The Iranian defense minister has warned that Donald Trump could trigger a world war and the ‘destruction’ of Israel and small Gulf Arab states if he provokes the Middle Eastern power.
Israel and the US coalition have been preparing for this situation for over a decade and an Israeli, US Coalition victory is not in doubt. The regime will be changed in Iran while Europe will be put into crisis to bring forward the planned New World Order of a New Federal Europe as a counterbalance between east and west, and a peace deal including a Mideast peace agreement.