The unfolding of Middle East events.
A month ago Hamas signed on to a reconciliation agreement with the Palestinian Authority. A new technocratic government has been agreed, to be headed by Abbas as president and as prime minister; both presently in those same offices. This government will be approved by the Palestinian parliament which is controlled by Hamas early next week.
The new Palestinian Authority government Is then expected to accept the Quartet’s three demands; and accept the existence of Israel, renounce force and abide by all previous agreements; and the Quartet of Russia, the United States, the UN and the EU have already agreed to recognize the new PA government.
This is to be an interim government with Palestinian elections with months, and therein lies the key to Hamas willingness to accept the conditions laid down by Abbas and approved by the United States. On the Hamas side they know that they will win the coming elections as they won the last election. This will place Hamas in control of the whole Palestinian government tin Gaza AND the West Bank.
At present the PA government will reject violence and recognize Israel’s right to exist, yet Hamas as a movement will not accept the Quartet conditions, and if Hamas wins the coming elections the next PA government will?
Far from surrendering to Israeli pressure, Hamas has been working towards taking over the West Bank as well as Gaza as part of its fight against Israel.
Hamas is also working on another facet of its anti Israel agenda by reconciling as a Movement with Iran and Hezbollah.
A deal was sealed in Doha on Thursday, May 22, at a meeting between Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Hamas’s politburo head Khaled Mashaal. It ended a month of intense Hamas-Tehran negotiations, which were conducted quietly in parallel with Hamas’s unity talks with the rival Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.
Now that Assad is winning the Syrian war, Hamas has rushed to the side of Syria and made a deal to be reinstated as a member of the Iran-Syrian-Hezballah Axis, with all the advantages of an ally which it forfeited by turning its back on Bashar Assad at a low moment in the civil war.
Before clinching the deal, Iran required Meshaal to publicly endorse Iran’s policy in Syria and his support for Bashar Assad. The Hamas politburo chief accordingly stated in Doha Thursday night that he “welcomed the position of Tehran toward Syria,” adding: “We will never forget Syrian President Bashar Al- Assad’s support for the Palestinian nation.” Meshaal was fully backed by the Hamas Shura Council, Hamas supreme forum for policy and military decisions,
Hamas was promised an annual allowance of $200 million per year, military assistance and advanced weapons on a par with the hardware supplied to Jihad Islami.
From the Israeli perspective this forming block of enemies cannot be allowed to expand and take over the West Bank as well, and makes an Israeli takedown of Gaza, sometime after the successful reconciliation government is approved next week and before the next Palestinian elections, almost imperative.
Meanwhile the US and Allies are readying an aerial assault on Syria to bring victory to their insurgency.
It is apparent that a regional war is in the making which will destroy the antagonists of Israel in the region and make a genuine dialogue for peace viable.
What about the Israeli government with its extremist members who are unwilling to give up a centimeter for peace?
There are two possibilities to change the existing anti peace Israeli coalition:
1. A new election, and
2. A change in the present coalition makeup after the war.
After the conflict, which may be very bloody, with Israeli taking multiple missile and rocket attacks on large cities, the Israeli public will be motivated towards making peace. This along with intense international pressure for a peace deal, will force the Israeli political establishment to reconstitute the governing coalition.
A simple change with Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home party leaving and Labor replacing them in the coalition, would be all that is needed to create a peace making government in Israel. Even if the Extremists inside Likud were to leave and join Bennett; there would be enough coalition and Knesset seats to push through a peace deal.
And what of a peace deal?
In fact a peace deal has already been made and all it will take for its approval are a few minor finishing touches to complete the deal; after the far right extremists leave the government.
In Conclusion: A major regional war is close at hand in the Middle East which will reset the realities on the ground with the defeat of Israel’s and Egypt’s enemies, after which an Israeli coalition reset will bring about a peace agreement in the near future.